Have you ever wondered about the different threats humanity faces today? Before the pandemic, some experts warned us about such possibilities, but when it happened, we were caught off guard. This got me thinking about other potential disasters we might not be ready for. So, I created a “map of doom” to explore these scenarios.
There are many possible disasters, like asteroid impacts, natural disasters such as earthquakes and volcanoes, wars, climate change, and even futuristic scenarios like robot uprisings. I wanted to figure out which of these pose the greatest threat to humanity using real data. That’s how I came up with the idea of a “doom chart” to visualize these threats.
By the end of this exploration, you’ll have a clearer understanding of the most significant threats to humanity and which ones we should focus on preventing.
To compare these threats, we can look at two main factors: the potential number of casualties and the likelihood of the event occurring. For example, an asteroid impact could cause a huge number of casualties, but it’s very unlikely to happen. Each disaster has its own unique combination of these factors.
We can plot all these disasters on a scatter plot. The horizontal axis represents casualties, ranging from a thousand to eight billion deaths, while the vertical axis shows the likelihood of an event, from those that happen annually to those occurring once every billion years. Some events are hard to assess due to a lack of historical data.
Take earthquakes, for instance. They occur on average once a year and result in about 10,000 deaths annually. The most destructive earthquake in history happened in 16th century China, causing around 830,000 deaths. While earthquakes are localized and don’t pose a global extinction risk, they are still a significant threat.
As we add more disasters to the doom chart, we can evaluate their relative severity. The chart is divided into quadrants: low likelihood and low casualties (freak accidents), likely but low casualty events (bad events), unlikely but high casualty events (total disasters), and likely and high casualty events (major disasters).
Next, let’s look at asteroid impacts. Data on past impacts and near-Earth objects help us assess the likelihood of such events. Smaller asteroids hit Earth roughly every 30,000 years, while larger ones, like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs, hit about once every hundred million years. The potential casualties range from millions to total extinction.
Supervolcanoes, which erupt about once every hundred thousand years, pose a similar risk. The last significant eruption occurred 74,000 years ago and caused global cooling, leading to mass famine. Unfortunately, we can’t prevent supervolcano eruptions, so we must focus on making our food systems more resilient.
Pandemics, like COVID-19, have caused significant casualties, with over a million deaths so far. Historical data shows that flu pandemics occur about three times a century, and antibiotic-resistant bacteria are an increasing threat, potentially claiming up to 10 million lives annually by 2050.
Environmental disasters, driven by climate change, pollution, and habitat destruction, are also significant threats. The World Health Organization estimates that climate change currently causes around 150,000 deaths per year, which could rise to 250,000 by 2050.
Social inequality, income inequality, and overpopulation are not immediate disasters but can worsen the impact of other threats. For instance, the COVID-19 pandemic was made worse by misinformation and social disparities.
Finally, we consider existential threats like nuclear war, rogue artificial intelligence, and cosmic events. While the likelihood of these events is low, their potential impact on humanity is catastrophic.
In summary, this exploration provides a comprehensive overview of the various threats to humanity, encouraging us to reflect on which issues deserve our attention and action. If you have any feedback or suggestions for improvement, feel free to share them. Thank you for engaging with this topic!
Using the concept of the “doom chart,” create your own version by researching additional potential disasters not mentioned in the article. Plot these on a scatter plot, considering both the potential number of casualties and the likelihood of occurrence. Present your findings to the class, explaining why you chose each disaster and its position on the chart.
Divide into groups and hold a debate on which apocalyptic threat should be prioritized by global leaders. Use data from the article and additional research to support your arguments. Consider factors such as potential casualties, likelihood, and current global preparedness.
Choose a historical disaster, such as an earthquake or pandemic, and research its impact on humanity. Present your findings to the class, focusing on the lessons learned and how they can be applied to prevent or mitigate future disasters.
Work in groups to design a plan for a community that is resilient to one of the major disasters discussed in the article. Consider infrastructure, emergency response, and community education. Present your plan, highlighting how it addresses the specific challenges posed by the chosen disaster.
Write a short story set in a future where one of the existential threats, such as rogue AI or a cosmic event, has occurred. Explore the impact on humanity and how society adapts to this new reality. Share your story with the class and discuss the potential real-world implications of such a scenario.
The purpose of this video is to explore the various threats to humanity that exist today. Before the pandemic, many warned that something like this could happen, yet when it did, society was largely unprepared. This led me to wonder what other potential disasters we might face that we are not ready for. I compiled a list of these scenarios into what I call the “map of doom.”
There are numerous potential disasters, including asteroid impacts, natural disasters like earthquakes and volcanoes, wars, climate change, and even futuristic scenarios like robot uprisings. I wanted to assess which of these pose the greatest threat to humanity using real data, and I believe I’ve found an effective way to visualize these threats in a “doom chart.”
By the end of this video, you should have a clearer understanding of the most significant threats to humanity and which ones we should prioritize in our efforts to mitigate and prevent.
To compare these threats, we can break down the risk of a disaster into two components: the potential number of casualties it could cause and the likelihood of that event occurring. For instance, an asteroid impact could result in a massive number of casualties, but it is very unlikely to happen. Each disaster on this map will have a unique combination of these two factors.
We can plot all the disasters on a scatter plot. The horizontal axis represents casualties, ranging from a thousand to eight billion deaths, while the vertical axis indicates the likelihood of an event occurring, from events that happen annually to those that occur once every billion years. Some events are impossible to assess due to a lack of historical data.
For example, earthquakes occur on average once a year and result in around 10,000 deaths annually. The most destructive earthquake in history occurred in 16th century China, causing approximately 830,000 deaths. While earthquakes are localized and do not pose a global extinction risk, they still represent a significant threat.
As we add more disasters to the doom chart, we can evaluate their relative severity. The chart is divided into quadrants: low likelihood and low casualties (freak accidents), likely but low casualty events (bad events), unlikely but high casualty events (total disasters), and likely and high casualty events (major disasters).
Next, we examine asteroid impacts. Data on past impacts and near-Earth objects help us assess the likelihood of such events. Smaller asteroids hit Earth roughly every 30,000 years, while larger ones, like the one that caused the extinction of the dinosaurs, hit about once every hundred million years. The potential casualties range from millions to total extinction.
Supervolcanoes, which erupt approximately once every hundred thousand years, pose a similar risk. The last significant eruption occurred 74,000 years ago and caused global cooling, leading to mass famine. Unfortunately, we cannot prevent supervolcano eruptions, so we must focus on making our food systems more resilient.
Pandemics, like COVID-19, have caused significant casualties, with over a million deaths so far. Historical data shows that flu pandemics occur about three times a century, and antibiotic-resistant bacteria are an increasing threat, potentially claiming up to 10 million lives annually by 2050.
Environmental disasters, driven by climate change, pollution, and habitat destruction, are also significant threats. The World Health Organization estimates that climate change currently causes around 150,000 deaths per year, which could rise to 250,000 by 2050.
Social inequality, income inequality, and overpopulation are not acute disasters but can exacerbate the impact of other threats. For instance, the COVID-19 pandemic was worsened by misinformation and social disparities.
Finally, we consider existential threats like nuclear war, rogue artificial intelligence, and cosmic events. While the likelihood of these events is low, their potential impact on humanity is catastrophic.
In summary, this video aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the various threats to humanity, encouraging viewers to reflect on which issues deserve our attention and action. If you have any feedback or suggestions for improvement, please share them in the comments. Thank you for watching!
Disasters – Sudden events, such as earthquakes or floods, that cause significant damage or loss of life. – Example sentence: The increased frequency of natural disasters is often linked to climate change and its impact on weather patterns.
Climate – The long-term pattern of weather conditions in a particular area, including temperature, precipitation, and wind. – Example sentence: Scientists study climate data to understand how global warming is affecting ecosystems around the world.
Change – The process through which something becomes different, often used in the context of environmental shifts. – Example sentence: The change in ocean temperatures is a critical factor in the bleaching of coral reefs.
Threats – Potential dangers or risks that could cause harm to the environment or human health. – Example sentence: Deforestation poses significant threats to biodiversity and contributes to climate change.
Casualties – Individuals who are injured or killed as a result of an environmental disaster or other hazardous event. – Example sentence: The hurricane resulted in numerous casualties, highlighting the need for improved emergency preparedness.
Extinction – The permanent loss of a species from the planet, often accelerated by human activities. – Example sentence: Conservation efforts are crucial to prevent the extinction of endangered species like the Amur leopard.
Pandemics – Widespread outbreaks of infectious diseases that affect large populations across multiple countries or continents. – Example sentence: The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the importance of global cooperation in managing public health crises.
Pollution – The introduction of harmful substances or products into the environment, causing adverse effects. – Example sentence: Air pollution from industrial activities is a major concern for urban areas, impacting both human health and climate.
Inequality – The unequal distribution of resources or opportunities, often leading to social and environmental disparities. – Example sentence: Environmental inequality can result in marginalized communities facing greater exposure to pollution and climate impacts.
Resilience – The ability of a system or community to withstand and recover from adverse conditions, such as environmental changes or disasters. – Example sentence: Building resilience in coastal cities is essential to protect against the increasing threat of sea-level rise.
